[Fiver]

Marchionne is expecting to see Alfa and Maserati sell 230,000 units together in 2017, with Alfa Romeo selling 170,000 globally this year. That's more than double the 73,000 vehicles sold last year, though the Stelvio is expected to sell fewer than 25,000 units this year. That may be due to the late release date, but it could pick up since the SUV/Crossover segment is still on the rise in terms of sales.

http://www.autonews.com/article/20170603/RETAIL01/170609910/alfa-romeo-stelvio-crossover-sergio-marchionne

 

[Khan22]

Can't see it happening the first year of it's sales and we all know how weak Maserati sales have been. Right now Maserati has only a posted amount of approximately 4500 units combined from the beginning of 2017 to April. I highly doubt they're making that goal.

 

[poormansferrari]

Well that's just how many they can sell, if they can deliver all of those is a whole nother question.

Quite possible they will have a massive backlog of orders to go through. As much of a barrier that can be for a potential owner like me I hope it happens. For one it will give me more confidence in the product.

 

[ilhatch]

Alfa Romeo wanted to sell 75,000 to 100,000 Giulias globally, but that didn't work out for them because they only manage to sell around 18,908 Giulias in Europe. That's because there wasn't a wagon/hatchback option that's so popular there and abroad. The Stelvio should fill in that gap, but it may not be enough to reach the 170,000 sales goal.

We'll just have to see I suppose.

 

[Khan22]

It won't be enough to fill that gap and it's extremely evident. That's a huge gap between reality and goal. Will they hit those numbers next year or the year after? Maybe.

But @poormansferrari is right as well. Sales are one value, but deliveries is a value that really matters too. Having a backlog and having people wait 8 months+ and that could result in people starting to pull orders.

So far we haven't seen that so we can hope for the best.

 

[Finesse]

The main thing is that they have some improving sales numbers as the months go buy so they can justify pushing new models. Once that happens, we can expect new iterations of the Stelvio and I'm sure we'll all be happy to see that.

 

[poormansferrari]

It won't be enough to fill that gap and it's extremely evident. That's a huge gap between reality and goal. Will they hit those numbers next year or the year after? Maybe.

But @poormansferrari is right as well. Sales are one value, but deliveries is a value that really matters too. Having a backlog and having people wait 8 months+ and that could result in people starting to pull orders.

So far we haven't seen that so we can hope for the best.

A long wait is sometimes a good thing because now that they've been overwhelmed with production, the hard numbers of whats required is staring them in the face. Odds are from that they'll know next time how many units to plan for or how many more shifts to add. Its almost unavoidable.

 

[Khan22]

That is true, but I'm kind of on the fence with it. I feel like that approach of it (no question, it definitely is helpful for further development) should be more kept to be employed after they've established more of a base and gain the recognition. Satisfy as many as you can straight off the bat just to solidify future products.

 

[ilhatch]

Alfa Romeo's new Stelvio will have all the growing pains of a new entry to the segment and production numbers are something they'll have to adjust depending on the demand. That'll be taken into account for their rumored crossovers which should be in the works.

If the Stelvio won't help Marchionne reach their 2017 sales goal, then the future models may.

 

[rossocompetizione]

Can't see it happening the first year of it's sales and we all know how weak Maserati sales have been. Right now Maserati has only a posted amount of approximately 4500 units combined from the beginning of 2017 to April. I highly doubt they're making that goal.

What? Maserati sold 42.100 cars globally in 2016, the 60.000 target for 2017 is realistic due to Levante effect and expansion of the dealer network

Maserati global sales

Q1 2017 11.900 +89%
Q4 2016 18.200 +82% (FY2016 42.100 +30%)
Q3 2016 10.700 +54%
Q2 2016 6.900 -17%
Q1 2016 6.300 -14%

source: FCA quarter results

 

[rossocompetizione]

Alfa Romeo wanted to sell 75,000 to 100,000 Giulias globally, but that didn't work out for them because they only manage to sell around 18,908 Giulias in Europe. That's because there wasn't a wagon/hatchback option that's so popular there and abroad. The Stelvio should fill in that gap, but it may not be enough to reach the 170,000 sales goal.

We'll just have to see I suppose.

Their target for EMEA regions(Europe-Middle East-Africa) is about 40% total sales once it's launched globally(target for 2018-19 when is launched globally and the network is renovated/expanded in all markets), so about 30-40.000/years cars in those markets which is about 2.500-3.300/month in Europe,Middle East and Africa, and in the last few months they sold about 2.500 cars/month in EU+Efta* countries which is a part of EMEA regions.


*Efta countries: Switzerland,Norway,Iceland,Lichtenstein

Giulia sales (EU+Efta)**
January 2.038
February 1.939
March 2.737
April 2.096
in May there's a prediction of almost 3.000


**sales data from 29 of the 32 countries of EU+Efta

They need time in order to gain contracts for fleet sales, premium D segment in Europe has 70% fleet sales, for example may 2017 was the first month in Italy with important fleet sales, a year after the launch, and the effect was important as almost doubled April 2017 sales


Giulia sales in Italy
January 793
February 786
March 916
April 728
May 1.374


Giulia/Stelvio sales in Italy
January 793
February 957
March 1.359
April 1.341
May 2.309


Giulia US sales
January 70
February 412
March 484
April 634
May 883

deliveries in China started in May, which is one of the most important markets for the model, but Giulia isn't yet in commerce in various other markets like Japan,Korea,Russia,Brazil etc. and they plan to launch the model in all those markets and other between Q3/2017(Japan) and Q2/2018(Brazil)


Marchionne's prediction of 230.000 combined sales, Alfa(170.000) and Maserati(60.000) for 2017 in Q1 2017 FCA results presentation is extremely realistic, and they considered the orders, the effect of Stelvio, the new markets, the expansion/renovation of the dealer network, the new markets effect and seasonality of the sales.

 

[ilhatch]

Marchionne's sales expectations seemed a bit too optimistic to me until I saw your breakdown of sales and future sales of the Giulia. Sales increased in leaps and bounds after the first few months, so I'm expecting similar increase with the Stelvio. Though we son't really have a somewhat accurate idea until the third quarter of 2017.